The Fed’s unwelcome ally in the fight against inflation: the credit crisis.
The Federal Reserve is getting some unwelcome assistance in its efforts to slow the US economy and combat the worst spell of inflation in four decades: a reduction in bank lending. The financial sector turmoil caused by the failure of two large US banks increases the chance that lending criteria will become far more stringent. Consumers and corporations would spend less if there were fewer loans. This, in turn, would make it more difficult for businesses to raise prices, lessening inflationary pressures. At the same time, other experts are concerned that the downturn may be so severe that the economy will enter a terrible recession. The Federal Reserve hiked its key interest rate for the eighth time in less than a year on Wednesday. The central bank's officials are grappling with persistently rising inflation, which has befuddled American people and heightened the economic uncertainty. At over 6%, US inflation is significantly below last year's peak while still substantially beyond the Fed's 2% annual objective. Nevertheless, the Fed also hinted that it may be nearing the end of its rate rises. This is due, in part, to the fact that a decrease in bank lending might assist the central bank accomplish its broader aim of slowing the economy and containing inflation. At a press conference following the Fed's announcement on Wednesday, Chair Jerome Powell warned that tighter lending criteria, resulting in a retreat in loans, may have the same dampening effect on inflation as a Fed raise. "It doesn't have to completely come through rate increases," Powell added. "That might be due to stricter financial conditions." Similarly, after the European Central Bank hiked its own benchmark rate by a significant half percentage point last week, its head, Christine Lagarde, stated that the ECB was not committing to a fixed rate rise schedule and that future rate decisions would be taken meeting by meeting. Anxiety over the European financial system "could have an influence on demand and might actually undertake some of the job that would otherwise be done by monetary policy," Lagarde said, just days after two large US banks failed and Swiss banking behemoth Credit Suisse needed a bailout from competitor UBS. ...
